Monthly Archives: July 2014

NBA Season Win Total Predictions for the 2014-15 Season

These were originally made July 28, 2014. At that time Paul George had not been injured and Kevin Love was not yet traded to Cleveland (although it was looking very likely to happen).

Not counting Indiana, the predictions were off by an average of two wins. On half of the teams the predictions were one win off or right on the number.

Team 2013-14 Vegas
Win Total		 2013-14 Actual
Wins		 2014-15 SOH Predicted
Win Total
(Jul 28)		 2014-15 Westgate
Win Total
(Sep 30)		 SOH off by…
Atlanta Hawks 39.5 38 37.5 40.5 -3
Boston Celtics 28.5 25 27.5 26.5 +1
Brooklyn Nets 52.5 44 42.5 41.5 +1
Charlotte Hornets 26 43 45.5 45.5 0
Chicago Bulls 56.5 48 53.5 55.5 -2
Cleveland Cavaliers 40.5 33 57.5 58.5 -1
Dallas Mavericks 43.5 49 47.5 49.5 -2
Denver Nuggets 46.5 36 37.5 40.5 -3
Detroit Pistons 40.5 29 32.5 36.5 -4
Golden State Warriors 51.5 51 51.5 50.5 +1
Houston Rockets 54.5 54 50.5 49.5 +1
Indiana Pacers 54.5 56 48.5 32.5 +16
Los Angeles Clippers 57.5 57 56.5 55.5 +1
Los Angeles Lakers 36.5 27 31.5 31.5 0
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 50 48.5 48.5 0
Miami Heat 61.5 54 44.5 43.5 +1
Milwaukee Bucks 28.5 15 20.5 24.5 -4
Minnesota Timberwolves 40.5 40 32.5 25.5 +7
New Orleans Pelicans 39 34 37.5 41.5 -4
New York Knicks 50 37 41.5 40.5 +1
Oklahoma City Thunder 51.5 59 57.5 57.5 0
Orlando Magic 23.5 23 25.5 28.5 -3
Philadelphia 76ers 16.5 19 20.5 15.5 +5
Phoenix Suns 20.5 48 46.5 42.5 +4
Portland Trail Blazers 38.5 54 50.5 48.5 +2
Sacramento Kings 31.5 28 30.5 30.5 0
San Antonio Spurs 55.5 62 56.5 56.5 0
Toronto Raptors 35.5 48 46.5 49.5 -3
Utah Jazz 26.5 25 26.5 25.5 +1
Washington Wizards 39.5 44 46.5 49.5 -3

MLB Season Win Total Projections at the 2014 All-Star Break

Projected wins formula = (Current home win % * Home games remaining) + (Current away win % * Away games remaining)

Projected total within 5 of Vegas total = Too close to call; Projected win > 5 and < 10 = Likely; Projected win > 10 = Lock

Team Vegas win
total		 Current
Wins		 Projected
wins		 Record for
over		 Proj Over/Under Status
Arizona Diamondbacks 81.5 40 68 42-24 Under Lock
Atlanta Braves 87.5 52 89 36-31 Over Too close to call
Baltimore Orioles 81.5 52 90 30-38 Over Likely
Boston Red Sox 88.0 43 73 46-21 Under Lock
Chicago Cubs 70.0 40 70 31-37 Push Too close to call
Chicago White Sox 76.5 45 77 32-34 Over Too close to call
Cincinnati Reds 84.5 51 87 34-33 Over Too close to call
Cleveland Indians 80.5 47 81 34-34 Over Too close to call
Colorado Rockies 76.5 40 68 37-30 Under Likely
Detroit Tigers 90.0 53 95 38-33 Over Likely
Houston Astros 62.5 40 67 23-43 Over Too close to call
Kansas City Royals 82.0 48 83 35-33 Over Too close to call
Los Angeles Angels 86.5 57 98 30-38 Over Lock
Los Angeles Dodgers 92.5 54 90 39-26 Under Too close to call
Miami Marlins 69.5 44 75 26-42 Over Likely
Milwaukee Brewers 80.0 53 90 28-38 Over Likely
Minnesota Twins 70.5 44 76 27-41 Over Likely
New York Mets 74.0 45 77 30-37 Over Too close to call
New York Yankees 87.0 47 80 41-27 Under Likely
Oakland Athletics 88.5 59 101 30-37 Over Lock
Philadelphia Phillies 76.5 42 72 35-32 Under Too close to call
Pittsburgh Pirates 84.5 49 83 36-31 Under Too close to call
San Diego Padres 79.0 41 70 39-28 Under Likely
San Francisco Giants 86.5 52 89 35-32 Over Too close to call
Seattle Mariners 81.0 51 87 31-36 Over Likely
St Louis Cardinals 91.5 52 88 40-26 Under Too close to call
Tampa Bay Rays 88.0 44 74 45-20 Under Lock
Texas Rangers 87.0 38 65 50-17 Under Lock
Toronto Blue Jays 80.5 49 83 32-34 Over Too close to call
Washington Nationals 89.5 51 89 39-30 Under Too close to call