Monthly Archives: March 2018

How to Bet On Sports – Betting Sweet 16 Trends

This year’s field for the men’s NCAA Tournament in college basketball has quickly gone from 68 teams to 16 heading into this Thursday and Friday’s games. There have been some major upsets along the way as well as some predictable runs by a few of the top seeds in the tournament. The trick to cashing in a few more winning bets at your favorite online sportsbook this week could hinge on the key betting trends for a few of the matchups on the board.

How to Bet On Sports – College Basketball Total Lines

Going region by region for the Sweet 16 Round, here a few betting trends that could have an impact on the outcome of the games.

South Region

The top matchup in the South Region pits the Big 12’s No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats against the SEC’s No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats. The top four seeds in this region have already been eliminated, so the winner of this game could have a clear path to the Final Four. Kentucky has been listed as a 5.5-point favorite for Thursday night’s game with the total set at 138.5.

Kansas State comes into this game with a spotty 3-4 record against the spread over their last seven games and it failed to cover as a 9.5-point favorite in Sunday’s 50-43 victory against upstart UMBC. The Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games against the SEC.

Kentucky is a perfect 5-0 both SU and ATS in its last five games as part of a 9-1 record both ways in its last 10 outings. These Wildcats have now gone 3-0-2
ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.

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West Region

No. 4 Gonzaga continues its quest to get back to the Final Four as a 5.5-point favorite over No. 9 Florida State in Thursday’s late game in the West Region. The total line for this game has been set at 154.5.

The ACC’s Seminoles’ run to the Sweet 16 includes back-to-back covers against Missouri as 1.5-point favorites and Xavier as 5.5-point underdogs. Florida State is still just 3-7 ATS over its last 10 games. Before these two wins, it has failed to cover in its previous five NCAA Tournament games.

The Bulldogs made another successful run to the WCC regular season title and the tournament title. With victories against UNC Greensboro and Ohio State in this tournament, their SU winning streak stands at 16 games and they have covered in four of their last six contests. Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against a team with a SU winning record.

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East Region

The Big East’s Villanova Wildcats are the top seed in the East and they have played the part with early round victories against Radford and Alabama by a combined 49 points. They have been opened as 5.5-point favorites for this Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup against the Big 12’s West Virginia Mountaineers. The total has been set at 154.5 points.

West Virginia covered as a double-digit favorite in wins against Murray State and Marshall in its first two games in this tournament, but it is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win. It is also 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games against the Big East.

The Wildcats have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with a 7-3 record ATS. They are now 8-2 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games and they have covered in eight of their last nine games played at a neutral site.

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Midwest Region

Kansas is one of two No. 1 seeds left in the Big Dance and the Big 12’s Jayhawks are listed as 4.5-point favorites in Friday’s matchup against the ACC’s Clemson Tigers with the total set at 143.

Clemson knocked off Auburn 84-53 as a slight 1.5-point underdog to punch its ticket to the Sweet 16. It has now covered in five of its last six games. The Tigers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral-site games and they have a perfect 7-0 mark ATS in their last seven nonconference matchups.

The Jayhawks failed to cover as 4.5-point favorites in Saturday’s tight 83-79 victory against Seton Hall. Kansas is just 3-3 ATS in its last six games closing as a favorite as part of an even 7-7 record ATS over its last 14 games.

Padres looking for their pot of gold

The one-year statistical blip that resulted in Petco Park tilting slightly hitter-friendly in 2016 reversed course precipitously last season, so Petco back is in its traditional spot near the bottom in aiding offenses. Barring a major free-agent signing (Eric Hosmer has been a hot rumor), the Padres' MLB-worst offense will likely struggle again this season.

Headley, 33, returns to the scene of his career peak — when he hit .286 with 31 home runs and 115 RBI as a Padre in 2012. He's never hit more than 14 homers or driven in more than 64 runs in any other season.

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Galvis' numbers fell slightly last year in Philadelphia, but he's at least an offensive upgrade for the Padres at short. He played all 162 games in 2017, hitting .255 with 12 homers and 14 steals.

Ross is a low-cost gamble after signing a minor-league deal in December. He won a combined 23 games for the Padres in 2014-15 before missing almost all of 2017 with thoracic outlet syndrome.

Players to watch

1B Wil Myers
RP Brad Hand

Myers is the one player in the Padres lineup pitchers want to avoid. He set a career-high with 30 home runs last season and continued to be a threat on the bases with 20 steals. However, his counting stats take a hit (as they did last year) due to a poor supporting cast.

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After taking over as closer late last season, Hand agreed to a three-year extension that will keep him in San Diego through at least 2020. He racked up 21 saves and was one of four relievers to strike out over 100 batters.

Sleepers

OF Manuel Margot
SP Dinelson Lamet

As a rookie, Margot had his baptism by fire being installed as the opening day center fielder. He has good speed and some power, giving him 20-20 potential as he matures. He's the best leadoff man the Padres have, so those extra at-bats will help his counting stats.
Lamet, 25, racked up strikeouts in the minors (an average of 10.1 K/9 over four seasons) and even improved on that in 21 MLB starts (10.9 K/9). Command is still an issue, but there's room for growth.

Bullpen

Closer: Brad Hand
Next: Kirby Yates

Converting save chances isn't likely to be the main issue for Hand — it will be getting those opportunities in the first place. Padre’s relievers gave up 101 home runs last season, the most in the majors.

If you're looking for a deep sleeper in the bullpen, Carter Capps returned from thoracic outlet syndrome at the end of last season and could work his way into a setup role if he's fully healthy.

Position battles

The Padres could get full-time at-bats out of OFJose Pirela or 3B/OF Cory Spangenberg — or they could use one or both to fill in at different spots, depending on need. Several talented prospects could work the way up to the majors and force the issue.
As for the starting rotation, at least three of the five spots should be up for grabs this spring.

Prospects

3B Fernando Tatis Jr.
2B Luis Urias

Tatis just turned 19 in January, but the son of the former big-leaguer is already on the fast track to the majors. He hit .281/.390/.520 at Low-A Fort Wayne (Ind.) before moving up to Class AA at the end of the year.

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Urias, 20, has an outstanding command of the strike zone, posting elite on-base percentages in the minors. He was impressive in this year's Arizona Fall League, posting a .315/.443/.481 slash line and showing some unexpected pop in the Fall Stars Game.

Cheltenham Gold Cup – Stats suggest a nice price winner

The Cheltenham roar will go up for the first race of this year’s four-day meet with punters and fans set for a thrilling renewal of the much-loved festival. Casual backers will be looking to pick-up a profit on day one, edging their noses in front of bookmakers for the week ahead.

Shrewd investors will be happy keeping their powder dry however, lying in wait to pounce on the biggest race of the week – the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Might Bite is favorite but previous runnings of the highlight prove it’s worth taking a pop at a bigger price.

It may take a bit of fun out of the occasion but it’s always worth doing your homework, trawling through the stats for any hints and clues that may lead to a betting gem. Below you’ll find some points of note from the trends…

Source: LaoisToday Sport via Twitter

700 is the magic number when betting on the Cheltenham Gold Cup with two of the last three winners going off at that very price – Sizing John last year and Coneygree in 2015. Those were starting prices, of course, so it may be worth waiting until closer to the off if you intent on following that stat, but there’s only one runner quoted at 700 in the Cheltenham betting today.

The horse in question is Our Duke. Trained by Jessica Harrington, the well-treated eight-year-old gelding has won half of his dozen starts to date with three placed efforts. He was last seen in winning form when leading a strong field home in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park earlier this year, leaving runner-up Presenting Percy a length behind. Harrington also trained last year’s champion Sizing John and two in-a-row looks worth a poke.

The 700 lucky number doesn’t just apply to recent champions. As well as two of the last three, no less than five Gold Cup victors have carried that price tag since 1994; the others being The Fellow (1994), Best Mate (2002) and Imperial Commander (2010).

Source: At The Races via Twitter

Three of the last five winners have been eight-year-olds – Bobs Worth, Lord Windermere and Coneygree, who claimed the prize money between 2013 and 2015. Our Duke is an 8YO, giving him a tick in the odds, trainer and age categories. His price is now looking a lot more attractive.

Opposing the favorite has also been the best strategy in this contest, with the jolly failing to live up to expectations, dropping three of the last four goes. Might Bite is a talented horse, having won nine of 14 starts and each of his five most-recent outings but at 3/1 with most bookmakers you’d think he was nailed on. That’s not the case. There’s more joy to be had in aiming for a bulky return.

The numbers say back Our Duke in the antepost market, with everything going in his favor. On the day of the race, if you fancy another flutter, avoid the favorite as best you can and look to keep that 700 quote close, especially if it’s attached to an eight-year-old.

The Leading Jockey at Cheltenham Festival 2018

The Festival is almost upon us and whilst lots of fun and drinking is to be had, there is the small matter of making some serious money on the horses. Whilst there may well be some great value to be had in the individual races and Cheltenham Gold Cup Horse Racing, we think some of the best value to be found is in the jockeys, most importantly, the Top Jockey title.

Whilst Ruby Walsh will be the frontrunner in many people’s estimations, having only just come back from injury the shot callers are just a bit unsure he can repeat previous successes and come out on top. With Barry Geraghty breathing down his neck as a 4/1 second-favourite, Ruby is going to have to be on top of his form to pull it out of the bag.