With the lack of marquee matchups on the week 3 slate of college football action, Iowa vs. Iowa State has quickly risen to the top of the list of the most intriguing games this weekend. This in-state rivalry has provided a lot of good games in recent history and with both teams hovering around the top 25, I expect to see another one on Saturday afternoon. The Hawkeyes head to Ames to take on the Cyclones as 2-point favorites in this game.
Iowa State Struggled Early
Week 1 was not pretty for the Cyclones, as they were forced into triple overtime vs. a pesky Northern Iowa team. Even though Iowa State eventually prevailed in that one, these struggles did some damage to their overall perception in the landscape of college football. Iowa State is somewhat fortunate to have had a bye the following week to regroup from that long and surprisingly close game.
Before the season started, it would have been reasonable for the Cyclones to dread a week 2 bye because it doesn’t allow them to get into a rhythm. However, with the result of the first game, I think Iowa State should be grateful that they have had an extra week to prepare for an Iowa team that is much more talented than the Panthers are.
Hawkeyes Look Solid
Iowa did not have the luxury of a bye week heading into this game, but they really have not been tested in the first two games of the season and that was always supposed to be the case. For Iowa, the games vs. Miami (OH) and Rutgers allows them to have a couple of preseason games before their first big matchup of the season on the road.
Even though they were without the bye, I would expect the Hawkeyes to be very prepared for this game, as it should have been the focus for the last 7 months or so. Rutgers and Miami (OH) are not teams that you need to game plan for and I think that this could give Iowa an edge.
Early in the season, there is a lot of gamesmanship as to which plays you do and do not put on tape in what some would refer to as “cupcake games.” This is something that Iowa has had the luxury of abusing in two easy games while Iowa State likely had to open up the playbook just to win their first game of the season. Iowa is a rather simple team offensively and they likely haven’t made major changes to the offense, but their ability to see exactly what Iowa State does in key moments will give them a leg up in this game.
When it comes to playmakers in this game, there is a lot of unknown. Iowa State lost David Montgomery and Hakeem Butler to the NFL and those two were the heart and soul of the Cyclones offense.
In their absence, I expect Johnnie Lang and Deshaunte Jones to step into their role, I just have not seen enough from them to expect them to do it at the same level. Missing two NFL caliber playmakers will definitely hurt the Cyclones against the top end teams on their schedule.
For the Hawkeyes, they lose two of the best tight end prospects that we have seen recently. While that might seem like a huge loss, I think that the Hawkeyes offense is much more focused around a scheme than players. These two players are elite and helped pull Iowa out of bad situations, but they were not the major focus of the offense.
In their college careers, Hockensen and Fant only saw more than 5 catches in a game twice. This team is going to miss them, but it will not take a drastic scheme change to fill the void.
Both quarterbacks here are guys that I trust to win a close game, but neither are elite talents that can do it on their own. While Purdy is more athletic, Stanley is the better pro prospect and I really think that they are about equal when comparing them to each other.
The X-Factor in this game will likely be A.J. Epenesa, a guy who is likely to be drafted in the top 10 of the 2020 NFL draft. Epenesa is a player that can wreck a game plan and I expect that to be the difference in this game.
Big Ten Tops Big 12
I think that the Hawkeye’s defensive talent force the Iowa State offense, who struggled to put up just 13 points on Northern Iowa in regulation two weeks ago, into a lot of 3rd and long situations that will allow Epenesa to feature his elite pass rushing skills.
I like the Hawkeyes -2 in Ames on Saturday afternoon. Take the Hawkeys as the favorite at our favorite pay per head bookie site https://www.a1pph.com/.
More Pay Per Head tips:
1. How to Be a Bookie
2. What is Pay Per Head?
3. Per Head Sportsbook
4. Why choose A1PPH
