The NFL season is on its way to the halfway point of the season and the NFL MVP race is really starting to heat up with a lot of big news and big performances lately. Patrick Mahomes injury, Aaron Rodgers 6 TD game, the rise and fall of certain teams has led to a massive shift in the odds compared to just a few weeks ago.
Favorites
Russell Wilson (+275) and Aaron Rodgers (+350) are slightly ahead of the rest of the pack in this race and I am fading both of them with very little concern for their given odds. I think that both have a few overall concerns surrounding them moving into the meat of the schedule.
Russell Wilson is the favorite and rightfully so after he has been incredibly precise through the first portion of the season. However, I am going to fade Wilson because I want to fade this passing game and this team as a whole.
Is it a requirement to be on an elite team to win the MVP? Not exactly, but basically every good candidate right now has a good record and I think that turning into a mediocre team will hurt any candidate this year significantly.
The Seahawks are 5-2, but this includes wins over the Bengals, Steelers, and Cardinals. Nevermind the fact that the Seahawks have only 1 win by more than TWO points. That is ridiculous and the second half schedule is much tougher.
Aaron Rodgers will get hurt by the tough defenses and bad weather that comes with playing in the NFC North, especially because he just hasn’t been THAT great. Rodgers was great last week, but I don’t expect him to do that much very often and I think the number is inflated because of the 6 touchdowns last week.
The Rest of ‘Em
I love 3 plays here for a few different reasons and I think that all of them are great values at the current price.
Deshaun Watson (+700)
Watson has an explosive group of talent around him and the Texans front office has been aggressive in the trade market recently, showing me that they think that they are in win now mode. Watson has game breaking ability at times and has flashy highlight plays both throwing and running.
Christian McCaffrey (+1100)
I think that the RB doesn’t matter committee has only grown stronger since the last NFL running back won MVP, but I think CMC has the ability to shift the narrative with MVP voters if the Panthers continue this run. They have won 4 straight after 2 early losses and CMC has been THE GUY in every game. He is easily the best back in football and he is good at everything you could ever ask for.
Especially if the Panthers get Newton back healthy and the Panthers continue this run, CMC will almost make it seem like quarterbacks don’t matter and I think that his highlight reel plays and consistent dominance will get more love if the Panthers keep winning.
Patrick Mahomes (+1300)
Mahomes has been banged up with an ankle injury and then a dislocated kneecap on Thursday’s game. However, Mahomes was back at practice today, just 6 days later and he has yet to be ruled out by the Chiefs.
While I don’t think he plays on Sunday night, I do think that this means that he will be good to go by next week. Missing 1.5 games won’t hinder his chances to win and it may cause the Chiefs to keep their foot on the gas more than last season.
Not to mention the fact that we could see both Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill back at full health once Mahomes returns to this team, making them the scariest passing attack in football in my mind.
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