The 2020 NFL season nears its midpoint and already we see a significant number of betting trends. One relates to scoring, which is up again in 2020. Another involves Seattle QB Russell Wilson whose team is off to a 5-0 start.
Let’s examine betting trends we’ve identified in the 2020 NFL season.
Over/Under
As mentioned, scoring is up in 2020. It’s actually way up. Games are averaging 51.4 points this season almost six points over last year. For Totals bettors, it meant backing the Over was a strong play for most of the beginning of the season.
In fact, over the first three weeks of the 2020 season, the Over went 29-19. Since then, the Over has not done all that well going just 17-22-1. It actually makes sense as totals work their way back toward the mean. The more recent trend then is backing the Under.
Division Road Underdogs
Division opponents play each other twice per season, once at home and once on the road. Early in an NFL season when two divisional opponents meet, the road underdog usually outperforms the home favorite and the numbers back it up.
Over the past few seasons, divisional road underdogs playing in the months of September, October, and November are 358-285-33 ATS (53.75%). Let’s compare that to division opponents playing in December and January.
In those two months, the road underdog was just 186-194-10 ATS. The thought is this. Opponents lack enough information about their opponents early in the year. Later in a season, teams have played more games, there is more film available, more information available, and teams are simply more familiar with their opponent. Keep that in mind heading into the second half of this season.
Before we move on, let’s look at what has changed in a few weeks. Here’s NFL betting stats thru Week 4.
Backing Quarterbacks
It is the most important position in football – and likely in all of sports – and it’s no surprise that the performance of the quarterback has tremendous influence on the outcome of games.
Certain quarterbacks are trending in a direction that helps bettors. One of the top signal-callers to back is Seattle’s Russell Wilson. For his career, Wilson is 72-54-7 ATS. This season, he’s off to an MVP-like start, the Seahawks are 5-0, and bettors continue to love Wilson as he’s 4-1 ATS.
Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is another. He’s the reason why the Chiefs score so many points and win so many games. Since taking over as the starter in his second season, Mahomes is 26-13-2 ATS.
Aaron Rodgers is another big-name quarterback. Bettors love Rodgers, especially when he’s coming off an ATS loss. After a Green Bay loss, Rodgers and the Packers win straight up more than 60 percent of the time. For his career, Rodgers is 40-21-1 ATS in games after a loss.
Don’t Forget the Other QBs
While Wilson, Mahomes, and Rodgers are names most are familiar with, don’t forget the not-so-well-known quarterbacks. Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill took over the Titans starting job last year. He earned the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year Award as a result.
Not only has he done well statistically and guided Tennessee to a 5-0 start this season, he’s trending upward for NFL sports bettors. In Tannehill’s 15 regular season starts, the Over is 13-2. In the nine games played at Nissan Stadium, the Over is 8-1.
Carolina’s Teddy Bridgewater has had his share of struggles. Finally a No. 1 starter for the Panthers, Bridgewater is a quarterback bettors should love. His ATS record is almost unbelievable.
Overall, Bridgwater is 30-10 ATS. You can break it down into different situations and find even more impressive numbers. When he’s been an underdog, Bridgewater is 20-5 ATS. As the road quarterback, he’s 16-3 ATS and as a road underdog Bridgewater is 15-2 ATS.
