Here’s a look at NCAAB odds history and how it may impact the 2022-23 season.
Key Points
– NCAAB odds history gives bettors some insight into the 2022-23 season.
– Bettors can use NCAAB odds history to build a profile of the national champion.
Examining NCAAB Odds History
In the last five NCAA college basketball tournaments, one program has been the overall No. 1 seed four times. That program was the overall betting favorite heading into four of those five tournaments as well.
It’s no surprise then that the program in question here is also the overall betting favorite to win the 2022-23 national championship. When examining NCAAB odds history, you will find that Gonzaga, under head coach Mark Few, has been the preseason betting favorite a number of times over the past several seasons.
That may not be surprising, but there is plenty that comes as a surprise. Here’s a look at some NCAAB odds history and how it may impact the 2022-23 college basketball season.
ICYMI: HOW NBA ODDS HISTORY IMPACTS 2022-23 SEASON
Champions Preseason NCAAB Odds History
Just before the new season got underway this year, Gonzaga was a +800 favorite to win this season’s March Madness title. Only the Bulldogs and Houston (+900) were given odds better than +1000 in the preseason. The Cougars bowed out of last year’s tournament in the Elite Eight and were in the Final Four the year before.
Of the last six national champions only one was given odds of better than +1000 to win it all. That was Baylor in 2020-21. The Bears were +800 preseason favorites.
The other five national champions all had preseason betting odds of +1350 or higher. Villanova was given preseason odds of +2700 in 2015-16 and +2500 odds in 2017-18.
Last year’s champion, Kansas, was listed at +1400 in the preseason. While the Jayhawks odds dipped slightly during the season, Kansas was still given +1400 odds on March 1 before the Big 12 tournament.
The last 13 college basketball national champions had average preseason odds of +1919. The biggest overall favorite was 2008-09 North Carolina at +450. The biggest longshot was 2013-14 Connecticut, a No. 7 seed that went on to win it all. The Huskies’ preseason odds to win were +6500.
Much March Madness
As the 2022-23 season progresses, futures bettors will want to pay close attention to NCAAB odds history on March 1. Four of the last five national champions had odds better than +1000. The exception, of course, was last year’s Kansas team.
As teams then move through their conference tournaments, it should be noted that each of the last five national champs (and eight of the last 12) had odds of +800 or lower just prior to Round 1 of the NCAA tournament.
Of the last five winners, only one was an underdog heading into the national championship game. That was Baylor in 2020-21. The Bears were a +165 underdog to Gonzaga.
Having access to historical odds is one of the advantages of online sports betting.
Fitting the Profile of a Champion
Want to dial in a bet on a national champion using NCAAB odds history? You need to do some digging and look at a couple factors. These factors are common among teams that typically make it to the Final Four and have a shot at a championship.
Over the last decade, a couple of KenPom stats stand out among those programs that consistently compete for March Madness titles. You can use these stats for betting NCAA basketball totals too.
One category is tempo. If you go back 20 years, the 76 teams that have made the Final Four averaged right around 175 (out of 330 teams) in tempo. Over the last 10 years, that number is closer to 200, but it’s heavily influenced by Virginia which, in 2019, ranked dead last in the country in tempo.
The other big factors are offensive and defensive efficiency. In the 2020-21 Final Four, for example, all four teams ranked no lower than 15th in either offensive or defensive efficiency.
Gonzaga ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 7 on defense. Baylor, which won the national title, ranked ninth and 14th. Houston ranked No. 10 on offense and No. 11 on defense. UCLA, the surprise Final Four team that year, ranked No. 15 on offense and No. 12 on defense.
Betting 2022-23 NCAAB Champion
NCAAB odds history suggests that this year’s national champion will not be the preseason favorite. Only five of the last 13 national champions had preseason betting odds lower than +1000.
With the average of those last 13 March Madness winners right around +1900, bettors might consider teams like Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, Texas, and Baylor. Kentucky, Duke, and Kansas are blueblood programs that contend for titles every year. Baylor has been outstanding since Scott Drew turned the program around years ago. Texas has also been a program on the rise.
Longshot NCAAB Odds History
While it makes sense to not bet on the overall favorite, betting on longshots to win the NCAA tournament is difficult. It’s also one of the things that makes sports betting so popular right now – the potential for big payouts.
Over the last 13 tournaments, only four times were the eventual champion’s odds greater than +1900. Ironically, the only longshot wins over the past 13 seasons were accomplished by just two teams.
Connecticut was a +4000 longshot in 2011-12 to win it all. The Huskies wound up winning the national championship and then did so again in 2013-14 as +6500 longshots.
We mentioned Villanova already. They won in 2015-16 at +2500 and then again in 2017-18 as +2700 longshots.
