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For the first time since Pep Guardiola’s arrival in 2016, Manchester City are not favourites to lift the Premier League title. The Sky Blues find themselves adrift of the Champions League places, and while they have picked up the pace once again over the festive period, there is a lot of work to do. Guardiola’s side have struggled this season, and while they remain a formidable force, the Premier League betting odds reflect a shift in the landscape.
Rodri’s injury against Arsenal in September has highlighted the fragility in City’s setup. The Spaniard, who won the 2024 Ballon d’Or for his contributions at City and La Roja over the summer, is a big miss. His absence exposed the lack of depth in midfield and disrupted Guardiola’s finely tuned system, leading to uncharacteristic struggles.
With the squad also looking increasingly burnt out following their historic treble last season, City’s dominance has been called into question. Their disastrous end to 2024, with just two wins from their final 14 games, further underlines the challenges facing Guardiola.
Off the pitch, ongoing court cases and 115 charges relating to alleged financial breaches continue to loom large over the club. Despite Guardiola signing a contract extension in November, there’s growing speculation that his tenure at the Etihad could be nearing a bitter end.
Yet, whatever the future holds, it’s impossible to ignore the dynasty Guardiola has built at Manchester City and the indelible mark he has left on English football.
When Guardiola arrived in England, many questioned whether his possession-based football, perfected at Barcelona and refined at Bayern Munich, would succeed in the physical and unpredictable nature of the Premier League. But the Catalonian adapted quickly, evolving his tactics to suit the demands of English football.
One of his first challenges was restructuring Manchester City’s defence. Guardiola recognised the need to bring in ball-playing defenders who could also cope with the league’s physicality. The signings of Aymeric Laporte, Kyle Walker, and later Ruben Dias were crucial in solidifying City’s backline. These players allowed City to play their trademark style, building attacks from the back.
Guardiola also introduced new tactical concepts, such as inverted full-backs and overloads in midfield, which have since been mimicked by managers across the league. The box 3-4-3 was a stroke of genius when the injuries piled up in 2023, and it showed what an innovative coach he can be, with the likes of Liverpool and Manchester United incorporating similar styles to get the best out of their key passers.
His teams’ dominance on the ball forced opponents to rethink their defensive strategies, fundamentally changing the way Premier League football is played.
Several of Guardiola's former players and understudies have risen to the top of management, showcasing his influence beyond the pitch. Xavi led Barcelona to a league title, Vincent Kompany now manages Bayern Munich, Enzo Maresca is thriving at Chelsea, and Mikel Arteta could guide Arsenal to Premier League glory.
“With Pep Guardiola, it is not just a formation or system of play, it is not about that. It is the flexibility,” Joaquin Gomez said about his pioneering approach. “Football is moving into having a deeper understanding and to be a lot more flexible. It is normal now to have teams who attack and defend in a different system.
“When Manchester City played against Bayern Munich in (last season’s) Champions League quarter-final, within 20 minutes, it was not working and they changed into a different type of press, a middle block, and it worked really well. We are going to see more and more of that.”
Guardiola’s impact on English football places him in the pantheon of great managers who have graced the game. His innovation and success rival those of Sir Alex Ferguson, Arsène Wenger, and José Mourinho, each of whom reshaped the Premier League in their own way. Guardiola’s ability to adapt and thrive in different leagues, combined with his tactical brilliance, sets him apart.
As questions about his future linger, Guardiola’s legacy is already secure. Whether his tenure at Manchester City ends this season or years from now, he has undoubtedly changed English football forever, setting a standard that may take decades to surpass.
