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Despite mid-season doubts, The Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl. Photo via https://x.com/Chiefs/status/1883709645006778582/photo/1
When Super Bowl LIX is done and dusted, there’s a fair chance that we will look back at the Kansas City Chiefs as one of the most interesting winners in recent years from a betting point of view. It’s not the historic “three-peat” that makes the Chiefs interesting. Rather, it is the fact that there were severe doubts about the team’s abilities throughout the season, causing the Chiefs to drop their favorite status at various points of the campaign.
To explain, we must go back to the preseason, where, understandably, the Chiefs were favorites in the Super Bowl odds. The team actually shared this status with the San Francisco 49ers. Before the regular season started, you could find the Chiefs’ price somewhere in the region of +450 to +650 to win Super Bowl LIX.
Chiefs’ performances did not match results
The Chiefs started the season as most expected them to do – by winning. The team reached 9-0 at one point. Yet, that is where it got interesting. While the Chiefs continued to win, the performances looked muted. They actually set records for low margins of victory. It caused the curious phenomenon of seeing a team drop down the betting markets despite holding the best record in the NFL. By late fall, most sportsbooks had opted for the Detroit Lions as Super Bowl favorite. In Week 12, when the Chiefs succumbed to a first loss of the season against the Bills, several sportsbooks also inserted Buffalo ahead of the Chiefs.
As we know, of course, the Lions and Bills fell away in the Playoffs, with the latter losing to the Chiefs in a modern classic in the AFC Championship Game. While we don’t know what’s going to happen in the Super Bowl on February 9th, it does feel like vindication for Andy Reid and his players. Even if the Eagles win – a distinct possibility despite the Chiefs being favorites – the team proved in the Playoffs that they remain the team to beat to gain supremacy in the NFL.
The team improved over late December
Yet, we could also mark a change in the sportsbooks’ perception of the Chiefs before the Playoffs got underway. The team’s performances definitely lifted across the busy Christmas period, as evidenced by confident wins over the Steelers and Texans. We can leave aside the defeat at the hands of the Broncos on the final day of the season. The Chiefs had already secured the No.1 Seed, and Reid was clearly focused on keeping players fit for the Playoffs.
Nonetheless, by the time the Chiefs wrapped up their regular season campaign, there was more movement for the team in the betting markets, going back up toward the top. On January 8th, just before the Playoffs got underway, you could find the Chiefs priced at around +350 to win Super Bowl LIX. The Lions, despite being favorites for a large tranche of the regular season, were a little longer, priced around +450.
Of course, you can see the logic in all this. It’s not uncommon for preseason favorites to fall away in the betting markets – statistically speaking, the favorite rarely wins the Super Bowl. Yet, doubts set in about the Chiefs set in around the middle of the season, causing them to slip down the pecking order. By the time the Playoffs were about to begin, the sportsbooks looked at the 15-2 Chiefs and thought, “This is a team that just knows how to win.” A fifth Super Bowl in six years: Why did any of us doubt them?
