Now that the 2020 NFL regular season has wrapped up, it’s time to look at the 2020 NFL numbers and some of the interesting statistics and numbers. Some of them are startling, and others may prove useful for future reference.
The most surprising number is how many games were lost due to COVID-19: 0. There were postponements and rescheduling of a handful of contests, but no games were outright canceled by the pandemic.
If anyone had an NFL futures wager on that prop, your time is running out. Can you believe there are only 3 NFL games left?
EDITOR’S CHOICE: GETTING READY FOR MARCH MADNESS 2021
Betting Favorites
New Orleans was favored in the most games this past season at 16. Four teams were the favorites in 15 of their games, including the Kansas City Chiefs. Among the teams who were most often favored at kickoff, Baltimore had the best record against the spread.
When they were favored, the Ravens were able to cover in nine of the games. At the other end of the spectrum, the Chiefs were only 6-9 against the spread as favorites. For all games played, Miami led the way with a record of 11-5 against the spread. The bookmakers had a difficult time catching up to their surprising run.
Miami was also the most impressive as a home favorite against the spread. They won all three games in their home stadium when they were favored to win. Dallas was the worst home favorite, failing to cover in five attempts.
The Denver Broncos were the only team in the NFL that wasn’t favored in a single game during the season. Three teams, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, and the New York Jets, were only favored once the entire season. Only Cincinnati was able to cover the spread in their lone game as a favorite.
Must Read > Betting the Ponies in 2021
Betting Underdogs
Pittsburgh and Buffalo led the way in cover percentage during the 2020 NFL season in games where they were the underdogs. Both teams covered the spread four of the five times they weren’t favored in a contest. Miami was next, going 7-2 against the spread as underdogs.
On the season, underdogs covered the spread 55% of the time. Road dogs covered at virtually the same rate, 54.8%. When looking at 2020 NFL numbers, a case could be made that there wasn’t a home-field advantage without fans in the stadiums.
The two worst teams as road underdogs were Philadelphia and Dallas, both going 1-4 against the spread. Dallas was also the worst team against the spread for all of their games with a 5-11 record. Considering how disappointing their performance was in 2020, it shouldn’t be surprising.
Over/Under
Early in the season, teams were outscoring the over/under lines at over a 60% rate. There was a lot of scoring, and the lines just weren’t being set high enough. As the season carried on, bookmakers adjusted, and so did the defenses.
By the end of the 2020 season, the numbers swung in favor of the under bettors. Games in which the teams failed to reach the over/under line comprised 50.3%, with 48.6% over and 1.1% pushed.
Some of the lower scoring games can be attributed to sidelined key skill players due to COVID-19 protocols. Injuries also accounted for some teams not showing as much offensive firepower as they did early in the season.
The Las Vegas Raiders led the way against the over, with their games going 12-3-1 against the line. Tennessee, led by Derrick Henry’s 2027 rushing yards, was just behind them at 12-4-1.
It's easy to see there was a lot going on for bettors and fans alike when it comes to the 2020 NFL numbers. We'll be back after the Super Bowl to bring you the playoff numbers.
