The Cheltenham roar will go up for the first race of this year’s four-day meet with punters and fans set for a thrilling renewal of the much-loved festival. Casual backers will be looking to pick-up a profit on day one, edging their noses in front of bookmakers for the week ahead.
Shrewd investors will be happy keeping their powder dry however, lying in wait to pounce on the biggest race of the week – the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Might Bite is favorite but previous runnings of the highlight prove it’s worth taking a pop at a bigger price.
It may take a bit of fun out of the occasion but it’s always worth doing your homework, trawling through the stats for any hints and clues that may lead to a betting gem. Below you’ll find some points of note from the trends…
Source: LaoisToday Sport via Twitter
700 is the magic number when betting on the Cheltenham Gold Cup with two of the last three winners going off at that very price – Sizing John last year and Coneygree in 2015. Those were starting prices, of course, so it may be worth waiting until closer to the off if you intent on following that stat, but there’s only one runner quoted at 700 in the Cheltenham betting today.
The horse in question is Our Duke. Trained by Jessica Harrington, the well-treated eight-year-old gelding has won half of his dozen starts to date with three placed efforts. He was last seen in winning form when leading a strong field home in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park earlier this year, leaving runner-up Presenting Percy a length behind. Harrington also trained last year’s champion Sizing John and two in-a-row looks worth a poke.
The 700 lucky number doesn’t just apply to recent champions. As well as two of the last three, no less than five Gold Cup victors have carried that price tag since 1994; the others being The Fellow (1994), Best Mate (2002) and Imperial Commander (2010).
Source: At The Races via Twitter
Three of the last five winners have been eight-year-olds – Bobs Worth, Lord Windermere and Coneygree, who claimed the prize money between 2013 and 2015. Our Duke is an 8YO, giving him a tick in the odds, trainer and age categories. His price is now looking a lot more attractive.
Opposing the favorite has also been the best strategy in this contest, with the jolly failing to live up to expectations, dropping three of the last four goes. Might Bite is a talented horse, having won nine of 14 starts and each of his five most-recent outings but at 3/1 with most bookmakers you’d think he was nailed on. That’s not the case. There’s more joy to be had in aiming for a bulky return.
The numbers say back Our Duke in the antepost market, with everything going in his favor. On the day of the race, if you fancy another flutter, avoid the favorite as best you can and look to keep that 700 quote close, especially if it’s attached to an eight-year-old.
