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The man who would be king. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks locked in for the MVP award. Photo via https://x.com/TheHateCentral/status/1894234381222646185/photo/1
As the NBA season starts to heat up and teams consolidate their Playoff places, some of our attention is being turned to the awards that will be handed out once the campaign wraps up. We have a hugely interesting race for Rookie of the Year, with the likes of Stephon Castle, Jaylen Wells, Zaccharie Risacher, and Kel’el Ware in the running for the accolade.
Yet, when it comes to the regular season MVP, all indicators point to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder player is the runaway favorite in the NBA MVP odds at the time of writing, and it seems highly likely that he will get the nod. Of course, things can change in a matter of weeks, and there is still enough time for other players to change the voting panel’s minds, but SGA is in the driving seat.
SGA very much in the driving seat
The others who at least get a mention in the betting markets are Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, and Anthony Edwards. Yet, the gap between SGA and the rest of the field – at least in betting terms – is massive. Statistically speaking, only Jokic looks like having a fighting chance. And he probably needs something extraordinary to happen to both him and the Nuggets to rein in SGA.
Where do SGA’s performance levels match up in historic terms? If we look beyond the numbers and more into the realm of perception, you could probably argue that he is somewhere on a level with Giannis in 2020 or Jokic in 2020. He’s been the clear standout player for the standout team in the Western Conference (and perhaps the NBA) – the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder’s brilliance helps SGA’s chances
Indeed, it is one of those aspects of the MVP race that you need to be in a good team to have a shot. If you think back to a situation like Tracy McGrady for the Orlando Magic in the early 2000s, especially the 2002/03 season, many believe that T-MAC would have won the MVP had Orlando been a bit less mediocre. SGA doesn’t have that issue, as the Thunder is an organization turning heads.
It’s arguable that SGA isn’t having quite as dominant a season as some of the absolute locks for the MVP we have seen in recent years – think of Steph Curry in 2016 or Lebron James in 2013 – but it’s not too far away from that level, either. As mentioned, there is still enough of the season left to change minds, but the way SGA is playing suggests there is enough time for him to solidify this season as one of the great all-time campaigns. Of course, that is always a matter of subjectivity, despite what the stats may say.
In the end, though, it’s evident that something drastic is going to have to happen to rob SGA of the MVP award. Betting odds can be wrong, sure, but sportsbooks don’t pull them out of thin air, and they are laid out as an almost certainty that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be crowned the league’s best player at the end of the season. You can argue about where it will rank in historic terms, but it’s difficult to argue it’s not deserved.
