The Foxes’ Premier League title win in the 2015-16 season is one of the biggest sporting upsets in history. Some have made incredible sums of money on this legendary outcome, and tracking how the odds offered change from the beginning of the season to when the dream seemed more and more likely to become reality is a fascinating tale in retrospect for anyone interested in the world of betting.
The rundown: just how big of an underdog were Leicester City?
It’s tough to overstate just how big of a shock to the system Leicester City’s successful title tilt was. The Premier League only saw four different winners since its inception in 1992 at that time: the “big four” of Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City punctuated by the lone title of Blackburn Rovers shortly after the competition broke away from the rest of the football pyramid.
Never has a team so far down the food chain managed a sustained and successful title run, especially not one that has barely escaped relegation the previous season. Their survival was already quite a miracle, so much so that they actually topped the form table at some point during the last couple of games.
Of course, no one would have expected them to keep up and even surpass that pace going into the new season, not even with the arrival of their new coach, Claudio Ranieri. In fact, betting sites offered odds as steep as 5000-1 for their title win and reputable football betting site Rivalry’s statistics show that not a single bet was placed at the time for Leicester’s unlikely triumph.
How the Leicester City title win odds shifted over time
To begin with, the Foxes were seen as relegation fodder in the eyes of the bookies near the end of the 2014-15 season, with no odds even offered at the time for any potential title tilt at Sky Bet for the following one, and a 1/20 offering for an unsuccessful fight against relegation.
Chelsea and Manchester City were seen as the favorites at the beginning of the new season, with Leicester City offered at a 5000x multiplier, which is basically as good as “this is never going to happen” in bookie parlance. The odds didn’t get any shorter five rounds in as the Blues were in fifth place with eight points, already seven behind Manchester City with their perfect start.
The fact that they were still there or thereabouts by early October wasn’t exactly unprecedented but fifth place with a three-point deficit to the leaders didn’t exactly stream “legendary title challenge”: nevertheless, the 5K odds were shortened to 1.5k to 1 as the international break approached.
Leicester City got to the top of the table on November 21, beginning the day with 250/1 odds at Sky Bet and ending it at 100 to 1. A month later, they were at 10/1, still only third favorites behind Arsenal and Manchester City. Their three-point lead on January 24 translated to 8/1 odds, still behind the aforementioned two teams that seemed more likely to rely on their experience in the title race.
Pellegrini’s men were back as favorites as February rolled around, but their massive defeat to Leicester City on home ground by a score of 3 to 1 was the match where the bookies seemed to accept that the upstarts are the real deal. Arsenal and Spurs remained there or thereabouts both in the eyes of the betting markets and the Premier League table as well, but Leicester were odds-on favorites by March 12 and essentially closed out matters by April 25, ultimately clinching their title soon thereafter.
What’s the takeaway from all this for prospective bettors?
It just goes to show that the phenomenon of “black swan events” is well and truly alive in the sports world as well, but good luck trying to predict such incredible outcomes on any reliable basis! There’s a reason why none of the pundits around predicted Leicester to make it work at the start of the season – heck, not even two-thirds into it either!
That said, robust betting strategy and strong research trying to find small and consistent edges is a more reliable approach at the end of the day than trying to spot the next Greece or Leicester City – even though winning a 5000-1 bet is a story you can dine out on for the rest of your life! It’s no surprise that no such odds were offered for the Premier League the following season, with lowly Watford “only” offered at 1500 to 1 to win the title, and Leicester City themselves priced in at 33 to 1 for the unlikeliest title defense, which ultimately didn’t pan out for the upstarts. The fact that they still remain a part of the top six ever since is arguably just as much a shock as their 2015-16 title win.
