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You wish to create a model for sports betting. I highly recommend it, whether it's for your own amusement or you want to pick up some knowledge about spreadsheets or coding in the process! However, you're likely to be let down, especially in the beginning, if you're hoping to outsmart the sportsbooks overnight.
You might be better off looking at our proprietary college football betting model, which you can access with a subscription, rather than creating your own. Consider putting your trust in our data scientists rather than trying to do it yourself, especially considering the 7.6% return on investment we achieved on all NBA wagers with an OS Rating of 2 or higher in 2023–2024.
Knowledge of statistics
Some fundamental statistical ideas are required in order to interpret the data you will be working with. You can evaluate model performance and interpret data if you have a firm understanding of mean, median, standard deviation, and probability. Don't worry if you need to brush up on your statistics knowledge; there are plenty of online resources and tutorials available.
To rule them all, one number
Making sure a sports betting model can assist you in determining positive expected value (+EV) is crucial. Expected value is the amount you think a particular wager will yield; if it's positive, you expect it to be a profitable wager most of the time. You need a model that can tell you the likelihood of a particular outcome in order to find +EV. You won't be able to compare the output of your model to what the books are providing if you don't have that one figure. The probability of that outcome as established by your model is subtracted from the implied probability of what the books are offering.
Data Management
It's critical to find trustworthy sources for CFB computer picks statistics. While some specialized datasets may require subscriptions, others may be publicly accessible. In addition to locating data, you must know how to “clean” it, which entails fixing any mistakes or discrepancies and arranging it in a format that can be used.
Select the Model Type You Wish to Use
The choice of what kind of model to use is now yours. Models for sports betting can be surprisingly straightforward or extremely complex. As long as it DOES work for you, that's all that matters in the end. Betting model types include:
Analysis of Regression
The goal of regression analysis is to identify the critical elements that influence an event's outcome. In fact, there are a few well-known instances of regression analysis in action. On its own games, the NFL performed a sort of regression analysis. The league concluded that passing efficiency was the factor that had the biggest impact on the game's outcome. Since more than 75% of previous Super Bowl champions had passing efficiency of more than a yard per attempt, this data appears to be accurate as well.
Paroli
The Paroli tactic is quite easy to understand. Double your wager after a successful wager, then try again! Scale back to the initial wager amount if your bets hit three times in a row.
Anomalies in Statistics
Given that people play sports, statistical anomalies can be challenging. It is impossible to predict the anomalies in an event because of this.
Describe the data's specifics
These are only a few of the issues that must be resolved initially; there are a lot more that must be resolved before you can start. Making judgments about what is and is not right is hard. Above all, you must establish precise and rigorous rules that you can use to get reliable results. If the rules are to be changed every week, the model is useless. You'll be wasting a lot of time and energy in addition to having an unreliable and inaccurate betting model that yields a series of inconsistent results.
In conclusion
It's an exciting journey to build a college football betting model that combines statistics, analysis, and your love of the game. Even though it requires effort and research, the potential payout is a potent weapon in your betting toolbox. Don't aim for perfection right away; keep in mind that process improvement and refinement are essential. Be ready to learn continuously, assess your model's performance critically, and wager responsibly at all times.
