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The NBA regular season is a little more than halfway over. While there are still plenty of games to be played before the playoffs begin in late April, patterns have certainly emerged. Teams have cemented their position in the standing while individual athletes have given us a pretty clear look at what they have to offer this year.
Who is leading the odds as MVP of the season?
While anything could happen in the next two months, it is certainly fair to say that a few players have already made strong bids for the MVP slot.
First, how is the MVP decided?
It’s important to understand that there are no objective criteria for how the Most Valuable Player award is handed out, despite what bookmakers say – you can read more on who is leading here. The decision is made by a panel of sportswriters who list their top picks in descending order, 1-5. The player with the most top-spot votes gets the award.
The panelists are unrestricted in who they put on the list. This allows for a degree of subjectivity, particularly concerning the word “valuable.”
What qualities are of value? If a player has an extremely high shooting percentage on a losing team, does it really matter?
Generally, the calculations are made by assessing individual contributions alongside team achievement. You don’t need to be on a first-place franchise to get MVP, but ideally, the player chosen will have contributed in a way that is obviously influential.
When is the MVP chosen?
The MVP voting concludes at the end of the regular season, which means that playoff performance does not get factored in. There is also a conference finals MVP award and a finals MVP award, both of which recognize post-season achievement.
However, the true Most Valuable Player designation rewards consistent results demonstrated throughout the entire season.
The 2024 MVP was Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić who ended the regular season with an impressive 26.4 scoring average.
The Nuggets franchise was itself moderately successful, getting knocked out in the second round of the playoffs by the Timberwolves.
This is indicative of overall MVP trends. The player chosen does not need to be playing for the best team in the league. However, the team should be performing well enough that no one can doubt the value of the MVP contributions. How valuable can the star of a terrible team really be said to be?
Nikola Jokic
Nikola Jokic wins MVP awards almost out of habit. Having earned the designation in three of the last four seasons, Jokic has put forward a strong performance this season in his bid for a historic fourth. Winning MVP in four out of five seasons would put the center in rarified company. Only Lebron James and Bill Russel have ever achieved this impressive feat.
Right now, the odds have Jokic at (+350) keeping him very much in contention. However, he does trail our next highlighted player in most midseason polling….
Shai Gilgeous Alexander
To say that Alexander is having a year would be an understatement. The Canadian point guard, playing for the Thunder, has averaged almost forty points in his last ten games. Recently achieving his third career 50-point game, Alexander is widely considered the hottest player in the league right now.
And in a sport filled with big egos, Alexander is almost refreshingly modest. Addressing recent comparisons to Lebron James and Michael Jordan, he said, “Those guys have done so many great things in the game. I'm so far off of that. It's cool, but I don't think too much of it. The most important thing is to just know that I'm getting better in this process. Some nights it's going to look good, some nights I'm going to miss shots. I'm still playing on feel and finding a way to win through those. That's what I'm after.”
Right now, he’s the odds-on MVP favorite at (-550).
Other Players Who Factor
Is the MVP contest really already down to two players? Eh. At this point, you could almost say that it is Alexander’s title to lose. If he plays at the level he has been for the rest of the regular season, he’ll almost certainly grab the top spot.
On the other hand, there are still more than thirty games to be played and these two aren’t the only stars to put up good numbers. Jasyn Tatem of the Boston Celtics has generated a lot of buzz and is currently seeded fourth as a probable winner.
Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks is also factoring, currently with 100-1 odds.
Right now, the contest seems to be leaning heavily in one direction. However, it’s not over until it is over.
