#2 LSU is traveling to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta to take on the #4 Georgia Bulldogs in a game to get to the college football playoff and to win the SEC. Both teams come into this game off of clean wins over inferior opponents and neither should be dealing with a ton of wear and tear that has been an issue for months now.
While there wasn’t a huge game last week, Georgia lost DeAndre Swift and George Pickens against Georgia Tech and they will be without Pickens for the first half in this game since he threw a punch in the second half of that game. While Pickens is not the focal point of the offense, he is clearly the #2 right now behind Lawrence Cager in the receiver room.
Top Receiver Out for Georgia
Speaking of Cager, he will miss this game as well, which should not be great for the Bulldogs. Cager has been the best receiver on this team and they have already struggled to create separation downfield for a lot of the season. I expect Swift to play in this game, although he may not be 100%. Even if Swift is out, Georgia has one of the best RB rooms in the country and they should still lean on the run game.
The largest question mark in this game is how many points will Joe Burrow and this LSU offense put up on one of the best and most athletic defenses in the country. While Burrow has been phenomenal this year, I still want to give a ton of credit to the play design that is going on behind the scenes and the receivers ability to execute at a high level.
Burrow has an adjusted completion percentage just 3-5% away from his actual completion percentage depending on who you ask. That is ridiculous and it goes to show how this offense is designed to give him easy options at all times and that his receivers are almost always converting those looks for completions. While this isn’t really a good or bad thing overall, I think that this is less sustainable over time and I expect Burrow to struggle more than he has all season against a Georgia defense that should be able to hang with the great route concepts and play designs.
Now, we have not seen LSU be truly slowed down all season, but what would it look like if they did? LSU struggled to run the ball early in the season, but they have gotten a lot better over the last few games. I think this is a combination of more teams respecting the passing attack and just the result of an offensive line getting better as the year goes on.
I think that there is a scenario where Georgia doesn’t have to try too hard to stop the run game and this would create issues for LSU. The Georgia front is full of scary dudes and I don’t think that LSU’s run game has shown me enough where they will be forced to cheat in obvious run downs. I think that this will inherently give LSU tougher looks than we have seen them face all season.
I think that this is going to be an all or nothing game for the LSU offense to prove that they will score on anyone anywhere and that they can put up points on top defensive teams. When looking forward to the playoffs, Clemson and Ohio State both have Georgia caliber defenses with more offensive firepower. This is a tune up for the LSU offense and I think we could see them struggle a bit against better players.
Run Run Run
On the other side of the ball, I expect Georgia to attempt to run the ball down LSU’s throat all game, especially without their playmakers on the outside. LSU’s defense has been bad this year, but the secondary is talented and I’m not sure that Georgia will be able to create any separation downfield.
This side of the ball will come down to LSU’s run defense showing improvement. I think that Georgia may be able to manhandle LSU early in the game, forcing LSU to cheat and leave their corners on an island. While Georgia doesn’t have a ton of guys to torch that coverage it will still give them more opportunities to make big plays.
Spread Pick
The Tigers are favored by 7.5 and I want the other side here. I would not be surprised to see the Tigers show up defensively and completely stomp Georgia out of the building in a statement win. However, I think that the Bulldogs will jump to an early lead and make LSU panic a little early. I think this is a 1 possession game with Georgia in the lead with under 5 minutes to go. Give me the Bulldogs +7.5. Take the Bulldogs at RealBookies,, our favorite pay per head bookie.
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