If you are interested in sports betting, you cannot rely on luck alone: professional bettors try to increase their chances of winning or at least limit their losses by using different strategies. These strategies are not “superstitions” – many of them are based on scientific foundations.
Here, we will list ten betting strategies developed based on mathematical models so that you understand what to expect from each of them. Some of them focus on finding the bets that will give you the most return according to the odds ratios, while others try to help you manage your budget more efficiently. Try them all, find the one that suits you best, and remember that you can visit the Roulette77 platform to learn more about odds calculations.
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1. The Kelly Criterion
This formula, developed by John Larry Kelly Jr in 1956, is “f = bp-q/b” and determines the optimal amount you should place to get the maximum return on any bet. P is the chance of winning, Q is the probability of losing, B is the odds multiplier, and F is what the stake should be. The formula does not guarantee a win, but it can maximize the expected return.
2. Value Betting
Sometimes, sportsbooks make a mistake in calculating the true probability of an outcome and offer odds that are lower or higher than they should be. A bettor can find out what the true odds must be by analyzing team/player performance, historical statistics, injured players and other data. If the sportsbook's odds are not in line with this, the bettor gets a betting opportunity where he can get the maximum return with the minimum investment – this is called value betting.
3. Arbitrage Betting
This is placing a series of bets on multiple sportsbooks covering all possible outcomes and making a profit regardless of the actual outcome. For example, you bet on Team A to win at one sportsbook and Team B to win at another sportsbook. If you set the bet amounts correctly, considering the odds offered, you will make a profit no matter which team wins.
4. Poisson Distribution
This statistical model was developed to determine the correct score and over/under betting. It uses historical data to consistently predict the total number of goals in football matches. Bettors use the results of this model to identify value bets.
5. Monte Carlo Simulation
This simulation model is developed to analyze random events and is also used for sports betting. It basically works like this:
• Data Collection. For example, win/loss numbers in home/away scenarios.
• Model Development. Creating a mathematical model with the collected data.
• Outcome Simulation. Simulating different outcomes with the model.
The Monte Carlo model can help bettors make more consistent predictions, especially in complex bets such as parlays.
6. Fibonacci Sequence
This strategy asks you to increase the wager amount according to the Fibonacci sequence after losing until you win. Fibonacci is a real mathematical model associated with the Golden Ratio, and each number is the sum of the previous two numbers. So, the wager increase should look like this: 1x, 2x, 3x, 5x, 8x, 13x, 21x, 34x, etc.
7. Progression Betting
Also known as the Martingale strategy. After losing your bet, you increase the wager amount by 2x and keep doing so until you win. When you win, the payout will be big enough to cover your losses. However, if your budget is limited, you risk going bankrupt before you win.
8. Dutch Betting
It is based on the same principle as arbitrage betting: by placing a series of bets covering all outcomes, you try to make a profit regardless of the outcome. However, unlike arbitrage betting, you place all these bets in the same sportsbook. Since most sportsbooks prohibit this tactic, your bettor account may be closed.
9. Expected Value (EV) Analysis
This is an analysis that uses the formula EV=(Pw×W)-(Pl×L) and is used to calculate how profitable any bet will be in the long run. Pw means your chance of winning. Pl is your chance of losing. W is how much you could win. L is how much you could lose. EV stands for expected value—it tells you what the average outcome of the bet might be.
10. Statistical Modeling
This means trying to predict the outcome using different statistical models such as regression analysis and Bayesian networks. These models are based on finding the key factors that affect the outcome and can be created in real-time. For the same reason, statistical modeling strategies are often preferred for live betting.
Whichever you prefer, remember that it is impossible to eliminate the factor of luck completely. No matter how good you are, there is always the possibility of losing. So play responsibly and don't risk money you can't afford to lose.
