Good day football fans! Early betting lines are out for each of the Week 1 games, so we can start breaking down matchups and coming up with predictions—or let’ just call them leans since we don’t have all the information needed to make full-on picks yet—against the NFL lines set by books around the world.
Today we’ll examine the lines for two games to see if there is any value to be had betting against the point spread.
Let’s dive in!
Packers at Saints (-3, 50.5)
The Packers signal-caller is pissed. He didn’t show up for a mandatory mini-camp and is looking at fines of around 100,000 dollars. And now, as they head into another, people surrounding Rodgers say that he won’t be strapping that Packers helmet on anytime soon.
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The Packers could have won the Super Bowl in 2019 if they had more than one dimension. The same goes for 2020. After getting defeated in the NFC Conference Championship, the whole world said, man, they just need a couple of solid targets instead of just one.
The guy who thought this the most was Rodgers himself. So, imagine his surprise when the Packers trade up the draft to select … drum roll, please …. Jordan Love, a QB out of Utah, which was precisely what the Packers DON’T need in the here and now. So, they go another season as a one-dimensional offense and get the same exact result: make it almost all the way to the finish line.
When I initially say this three-point line, I thought, ooh, there is some value there in Green Bay. Then I remembered that Rodgers wants out and in a bad way. Why … after stating that the organization is committed to Rodgers in 2021 and beyond, they go and take a corner in the first round and wait until the third round to draft a receiver. It seems like Brian Gutekunst is doing whatever he can to not get Green Bay the tools they need to win that last round in the playoffs.
He is disgruntled, and his future in Green Bay is unsure. Because of this, I am going to lay off the point spread until further notice and point you readers towards taking a prop bet on Jameis Winston throwing an interception. Do yourself a favor and click yes, and make some money.
Chargers -1.5 at Football Team
It’s Herbert time ya’ll! The Las Angeles Chargers are going to be a team that surprises us this year. They come into this game as slight, 1-point favorites against a team that is supposedly ranked twice as high in power rankings.
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Here’s the rub. Washington has played horribly at home over the last couple of season’s and now that their official name is ‘Football Team,’ these guys are going to walk out on the field in Week 1 fully depressed, doped up on Xanax and Zoloft.
Football Team .. ugh.
Anyhow, here is some historical data:
● Football Team has only won seven of their last twenty games.
● Football Team has only won four of their last twenty home games.
● Football Team has only covered the spread once in their last six September games.
● The Chargers have covered the number in four of their last five games.
● The Chargers have won four of their last five games.
● The Chargers have beaten ‘Football Team’—SMFH—in four of their last five meetings.
● The Chargers are 12-2-1 against the spread against NFC East teams
Furthermore, the Chargers have a season wins total line of nine wins. Conversely, Football Team—again, shaking my head as I write that ridiculous name—has a betting line for season wins of OVER/UNDER 8 games.
I would give the … Football Team the benefit of the doubt under normal circumstances. However, home-field advantage doesn’t count for much in this brave new world where nobody is in the stands.
Washington ended the season with an FPI of negative 1.7; meanwhile, the Chargers ended with an FPI of 4.7. This means the Chargers should beat the … Football Team by roughly six points on a neutral field. Even if we were to give a full three points to the Football Team for playing at home, there would still be a ton of value on the Chargers. However, now that playing at home is only worth about 1.5 points—at best—we can see that this point spread should favor the LA Chargers by 4.5 to 5 points.
Take the Chargers to win and cover the point.
